Arsenal Blog

Here is a table of the top four strikers that Arsenal have been linked with along with our current striker, Olivier Giroud.  The only player of the four potential signings on here who I absolutely don’t want is Jovetic.  His 13 goals and 5 assists is the lowest among the five players here despite starting the second most games.  Additionally, he is the most creative player on the team so he should have more to show for it.  Nothing else across his stat line suggests that he is anything more than a decent player who belongs at a mid-level club.  With 8.7 shots-per-goal, there is no reason to expect that he would score more if he was playing as the central striker for Arsenal and his passing percentage, key passes, and total number of passes are all much too low for someone who is supposed to be the creative hub of his team.  And although he has 2 successful dribbles per game, he is also dispossessed twice per game, suggesting that he is not a particularly good dribbler.  At 23, he should already be producing at a higher level than this if he is going to become a super star.

Benteke is an interesting prospect.  Before Aston Villa signed him, he was relatively unknown despite producing a relatively good season for Genk (16 goals in 36 appearances as a 19 year-old).  He actually struggled for the first half of the season—something that tends to go unmentioned—scoring only 6 times in his first 19 games.  He caught fire after the turn of the year, though, and scored 15 goals in 18 appearances from January onwards.  Strangely enough, he did the same thing in his only season at Genk, scoring just twice in the first 16 games while scoring 14 goals in 20 appearances to end the year.  In his seasons at Genk and Villa, he didn’t make the transfer until after the season had begun which could explain why it took him half a season to get into form, but it’s also a potentially troubling statistic.  One of the reasons I was glad that Arsenal didn’t sign Ba is that he had never produced for more than half a season, regardless of what club he was at.  It’s too early to tell if that’s the case with Benteke, but it’s certainly plausible.

His other statistics are impressive, especially for a 22 year old in his first season in one of the best leagues in the world.  He has a good shots-per-goal ratio and remarkably high key passes for a traditional center forward.  He has the highest dispossession and turnover rate among all players and his passing percentage wasn’t incredible, but those are things that could change with maturity.  Additionally, it’s common to see players who are by far the best player on their team have high dispossession and turnover rates as a result of them being the focal point of most attacks.  My only real issue with the potential signing of Benteke is how many unknowns there are.  Can he keep up this production for a whole season?  Will his passing and turnover rate improve?  Is he a mercenary who simply wants money (Arsenal would be his fourth team in as many seasons)?  Can he play in a team where he is not the star?  How would he handle being benched/rested?

David Villa is the only player being considered who is above 25, and although it strikes me as unlikely that Wenger would sign a 31 year-old, there are a several more reasons why he shouldn’t be signed.  He is the definition of a poacher with a good shots-per-goal rate, a decent number of assists, and not much else.  His passing numbers are low and his dribbling numbers are non-existent.  At 31, he would almost certainly be a back-up to Giroud, a player who can come on and score from his first chance.  His experience would add something, but Arsenal already has two poachers in Podolski and Walcott, and both offer more than Villa in every other aspect of their game.  Villa would have been a dream signing 4 years ago, but now he would be a waste of money.

Gonzalo Higuain is the player that I would most like to see in the red and white.  17 goals in 25 starts is a very good return for a player who isn’t first choice at his club, and he also managed to add on 7 assists.  His shots-per-goal ratio of 3.8 is better than Falcao’s, Cavani’s, van Perise’s, and Ibrahimovic’s.  In fact, I can’t find a striker who has a better shots-per-goal ratio while still playing an equal number of games.  He has a low number of passes, but that would increase if he was starting every game instead of coming on as a sub so much, and his pass percentage is decent, if not other-worldly.  His career goals-per-game at Real Madrid is 102 in 188, and he hasn’t scored less than a goal every other game since the 2007-08 season.  And who doesn’t want a player who is capable of scoring goals like this?

All in all, I would be happy with Benteke or Higuain, but I would prefer Higuain.  He is a proven goal scorer in his prime who, when he was starting every game for Madrid and Argentina, has scored more than 30 in a season.  And if Arsenal signed him to the ubiquitous four year deal, they could either sell him at 28 for a profit/what they paid for him, or keep him through his prime.  Pull out the chequebook, Monsieur Wenger.  He’ll be cheaper than he normally would be because he wants to leave, and the oil-money teams are too busy trying to seduce Cavani.

Arsenal were right to sell Robin van Persie.

Hear me out on this.  This is just an argument, and I’m not entirely sure that I’m right.  Nor am I trying to suggest that Arsenal wouldn’t be better off if van Persie simply slotted into this team in place of Giroud.  I still think that RVP is the best striker in the Premier League.

This argument is based on the premise that, had van Persie decided to sign a new contract in the summer, the Gunners would not have bought Cazorla (obviously that is speculation, but it seems likely given that Arsenal had already spent around 24 million pounds on Giroud and Podolski).  This argument is also based on the hope that the Gunners finish in the top 4 this season.

Let’s look at what Manchester United paid for.  Van Persie is 29, and will be 30 by the time the next season starts.  The Red Devils gave him a four year contract at £250k a week or £13 million a year.  That means that Manchester United owes him £52 million over the course of his contract.  He is also owed a £10 million “loyalty bonus” if he decides to see out his contract at United.  So that’s £62 million that United has to pay, excluding any possible signing bonuses and anything they might have paid his agent.  They also paid Arsenal a £24 million transfer fee, bringing the cost up to £86 million.

So, what type of player are they getting for anywhere between £80 and £100 million?   There’s no denying that van Persie has been a great player for the Red Devils this year.  He may have won them the title, and he was definitely their star player.  But was it worth it?  At 30, he is well past his prime.  He’s obviously had his injury issues, and even assuming he doesn’t get seriously injured for the rest of his contract, many of his previous injuries could shorten his career.  He has played only two full seasons in his life, and he’s had the same issue in both of them: he can’t keep up that same level of form as the season comes to the end.  Although he scored 12 goals in his last 19 games for Arsenal, he only scored in 7 of those 19 games, meaning that there were 12 games that he didn’t score in—and he’s doing the same thing for Manchester United this season.  He is unlikely to win the golden boot, and will be lucky to get more than 25 or 26 goals by the end of the season.  That is far from a bad return, but it’s a noticeable drop from his performance last season, despite being on a team that has scored many more goals than the Gunners did last season.

Based on the fact that his performance dropped this year, quite possibly due to his age, I think it’s unlikely that he will have another season that ranks amongst the greatest a striker has ever had.  I think he will be a useful player for United for the duration of his contract, and I think he will continue to score 10-20 goals a season.  But I don’t think he is going to continue to put himself in the conversation for best player in the Premier League.

And even if he did win the Premier League, was it worth it?  Manchester United are the biggest team in the world by ever available measure.  Their sponsorship deals are through the roof, their turnover from shirt sales is absurd, and they boast the biggest fan base among all professional sports.  Does winning the Premier League help them from a financial perspective?  I would argue that it doesn’t.  At this point, they’re big enough and successful enough under Sir Alex Ferguson that they don’t have to prove that they’re going to compete each year and draw huge numbers of views.  Van Persie isn’t going to bring in any extra shirt sales, and the Red Devils aren’t going to gain larger sponsorship deals or match day revenue because of his services.

And that’s the real kicker.  I think Manchester United will regret buying him because of how much it costs.  They have seriously hamstrung their ability to purchase strikers, ones who can continue to contribute for years to come.  Their two star players are on massive, contracts (Rooney is on £300,000 a week while van Persie is on £250,000 a week), both have three years remaining on their contract, and are both showing signs of decline.  That’s a dangerous position to put themselves in as Vidic, Carrick, Scholes, Giggs, Ferdinand, and Evra are all over 30 years old.  So while van Persie may have won them the League, the amount of money they owe him could prove to be costly in the future.  And I have to think that they would have won the League with almost any decent striker, given how far they are ahead.

So why is Arsenal better without van Persie?  As I said earlier, this argument hinges upon the assumption that had they kept van Persie, Cazorla would never have been signed.  Let’s look at the line-ups.  This is the one Arsenal (probably) would have had for most of the season had van Persie stayed:

Szczesny

Sagna  Mertesacker  Koscielny  Gibbs

Arteta  Coquelin

Walcott  Ramsey  Podolski

van Persie

And this was their line-up for most of the season without van Perise (I’m excluding Wilshere, Rosicky, and Diaby from both because of how long they were injured):

Szczesny

Sagna  Mertesacker  Koscielny  Gibbs

Arteta  Ramsey

Walcott  Cazorla  Podolski

Giroud

In my opinion, a midfield trio of Arteta, Coquelin, and Ramsey would be awful.  All three are the same type of player and none of them really feel comfortable playing in the role behind the striker.  And although the line-up with van Persie becomes better with Rosicky or Wilshere in the team, I think that the versatility Cazorla brings to the team is still more valuable.  With Cazorla in the squad, along with Rosicky and Wilshere, it lets Wenger change around the team at will both during games and between them.  He can play Cazorla on the left if he wants Jack’s driving influence or Tomas’ brilliant pressing.  He can have Cazorla drop off into the left or right midfield position while Podolski and/or Walcott move up to join Giroud in a temporary 4-4-2.  He can play Cazorla in front of Wilshere and Rosicky if he wants three creative midfielders in the team who can all create something from nothing.

This is not all blind conjecture.  Arsenal have scored 97 goals this season, with no one scoring more than 18 (Walcott) and four players have scored more than 10, and there are still five games remaining.  That’s three more than they scored last year, and only two players scored more than 10 (Walcott and RVP).  In addition, they have been much better defensively, letting in 15 fewer goals than last season.

Everything points to the fact that the Gunners are playing as more of a team this year instead of being reliant on a single player.  There’s no denying that van Persie was brilliant last year.  But I think that Arsenal are at least as good this year as they were last, and most importantly, I do not think that they would have performed better with this year’s van Persie in the squad as compared to last.  He will have scored 7 or 8 fewer goals this season in addition to having 4 or 5 fewer assists.  Although that’s more than Cazorla has brought to the team, I think Cazorla has drastically improved every player around him while also contributing to the balance of the squad.

If Arsenal finish in the top 4, I think they are in a much better position without van Persie than they would be with him.  They are more financially stable without him and don’t have to deal with the headache that will be his contract.  He wouldn’t have done anything more than propel them into the top 4 and I think they are much better poised to win something next season—provided they get into the Champions League and spend some of their new sponsorship money.

In Arsene We Trust.

Arsenal travel to the Hawthorns tomorrow to take on a West Bromwich Albion side that sits a remarkable 8th in the table, just four points behind Liverpool.  They had an incredible start to the season, beating teams like Liverpool, Chelsea, and Everton.  Much of their success comes straight from the Stoke handbook of mid-table success (although they do it without the leg-breaking that Stoke employs):  Be very, very difficult to beat at home and let in as few goals as possible.  They have let in only 14 goals in 15 home matches this season and only Manchester City and Chelsea have let in fewer.  They are on a bit of a bad run of form as of late, having won only 3 of their last 14 games in all competitions, but I would imagine that this will be a tight game with chances few and far between for both sides.

Much of their success is down to a few key players who have performed brilliantly this season.  Romelu Lukaku is scoring at rate of a goal every two games and uses his strength brilliantly to help open up opportunities for the rest of the team.  Claudio Yacob has been their engine, passing the ball out from the back and generally linking up play well.  And Ben Foster may be the most unnoticed goalkeeper in the league as he has the highest save percentage in the league.  In fact, much of West Brom’s good defense at home is reliant on him as they have given up an average of 15 shots a game despite letting in less than a goal a game.

To combat this, I would like to see Wenger ask Koscielny to man-mark Lukaku as often as possible.  Arsenal needs to make life hard for him and prevent him from getting the ball in the box as he could probably out muscle every player in the Premier League if he wanted to.  Koscielny is one of the best–if not THE best–one-on-one defenders in the Premier League and I think he could do a good job of breaking up anything Lukaku tries to do.  I’d also like to see Rosicky get another start as his pressing is always among the best in the League.  He will run Yacob ragged and hopefully prevent him from getting into any sort of rhythm.

I imagine that Arsenal will use the same line-up from last game:

Fabianski

Sagna  Mertesacker  Koscielny  Monreal

Ramsey  Arteta

Gervinho  Rosicky  Cazorla

Giroud

It’s possible that we could see the Ox come in for Gervinho, but given that he turned in a brilliant performance against Reading, I think it would be harsh if Wenger dropped him.  For me, this game hinges on the abilities of Rosicky and Cazorla to find space in and around the penalty box.  If Giroud and Gervinho’s directness can help push the West Brom defense back, Rosicky and Cazorla should have enough space to work their magic.  Runs from deep from Ramsey or Arteta would also help get an extra midfielder around the box, although the Gunners will have to be careful as West Brom is dangerous on the counter attack.  I could also see Wenger wanting to exploit the Baggies lack of pace by starting with Chamberlain on the left and Gervinho on the right with Cazorla in place of Rosicky behind Giroud.

West Brom has a couple injuries and suspensions that will prevent them from lining up the way they usually do.  Steve Clarke will presumably stick to his usual 4-5-1 with a line-up that looks something like this:

Foster

Jones  McAuley  Olsson  Ridgewell

Thomas  Brunt  Morrison  Yacob  Dorrans

Lukaku

Morrison is a doubt for the game with a niggling hamstring injury, and if the influential Scottish midfielder is unfit to play, West Brom could struggle to have the creativity and pace required to break the Gunners down as Brunt will have to drop back to cover for the suspended Mulumbu.  The only glaring weakness I see in this team is an extreme lack of pace at almost every position.  Arsenal should be able to do a good job of preventing the Baggies from getting in behind the defense.  The Gunners also need to exploit this lack of pace with Gervinho making those diagonal runs into the box that he loves so much and the full-backs getting forward as often as possible.

All in all, this is not an easy match for the Gunners.  Foster is a good keeper, and Arsenal’s forwards can’t be as profligate as they were against Reading and get away with it.  That being said, I do think Arsenal will dominate the game and create more chances, so it’s up to the forwards to take them.

COYG.

Disclaimer: Everything that follows is purely speculative.  Please take that into account.

One of the most common stories run about Arsenal is that Wenger has a transfer ‘war chest’ of anywhere between £70 and £90 million.  It’s hard to know exactly how true that is, but it’s safe to say that Arsenal probably do have more money than they have spent on transfers in recent transfer windows.  The large profit margins they turn every year speak to this (although a significant part of that is due to their “buy low, sell high” strategy) and with some of the front-loaded, long-term sponsorship deals they had to accept to finance the new stadium finally running out, there is a sense that Wenger really does have money and that he is finally willing to spend it.

So, let’s take the middle of that £70 million and £90 million number: £80 million.  Let’s assume that Wenger, Kroenke, Gazidis, and all the scouts are preparing to spend around £80 million this summer (excluding all possible transfers out).  Who should they buy?  What players will turn this team into a title contender once again?

Obviously, the first step is to figure out what positions need strengthening the most.  The biggest weakness, in my opinion, is at striker.  Giroud hasn’t proved himself, and there’s no reason to assume that he is going to drastically improve.  With only 15 goals in 40 games so far, his scoring record has been patchy at best and despite his size and strength, he hasn’t been able to be as much of a physical presence in the box as necessary.  He makes up for it a bit with 12 assists, but Arsenal is in need of a ‘fox-in-the-box’ type,  and at 26, he is at – or close to – his prime.  His decision-making is often suspect and while I admire his generally tireless work rate, he hasn’t shown himself to be good enough to help push Arsenal towards silverware.

Edinson Cavani is the solution.  He would be very expensive, valued at around £35-£40 million according to transfermarkt.co.uk, but he would solve Arsenal’s striking dilemma.  Everyone and their mother is rumored to be interested in him at the moment, but with Financial Fair Play coming into effect soon and teams like Chelsea, Manchester City, and Real Madrid seeming more interested in Falcao, it’s not entirely impossible that he could end up with the Gunners.  His goal record speaks for itself (95 in 130 games for Napoli over the last three years) and he is – in my opinion – the best out-and-out striker in the world at the moment.  The other contender is the aforementioned Falcao who has scored 63 goals in 78 appearances for Atletico Madrid over the past two seasons, but La Liga is a notoriously high scoring league.  In addition, Falcao is scoring a higher percentage of Atletico’s goals than Cavani is for Napoli, suggesting that Atletico is feeding Falcao more.  Cavani has a slightly worse shots-per-goal than Falcao does (4.4 compared to 3.7) but in the Europa League, Falcao’s SPG jumps to 6 whereas Cavani’s actually falls slightly to 4.3.  Additionally, Cavani has scored 7 goals in only four starts and three substitute appearances in the Europa League suggesting he is able to perform against big teams as well.

The second position Arsenal need strengthening at is defensive(ish) midfielder.  At 30, Arteta is only getting older and without him, Arsenal have been abysmal.  Ramsey looks to have taken a step in the right direction this season, but he is still an unknown prospect who might always be more useful as a utility player and although Coquelin has played well, Wenger seems very cautious to use him.  I do buy into Wenger’s philosophy that out-and-out defensive midfielders are a thing of the past (The best teams now use players like Busquets, Xabi Alonso, Carrick, and Schweinsteiger in that defensive midfield role), but Arsenal’s only consistently competent player in that position has been Arteta.  I don’t want some destroyer similar to M’Vila or Mikel, but I would like to see Wenger splash out to find a replacement for Arteta who would also be able to play alongside him.

Enter Maxime Gonalons who is, statistically, eerily similar to Arsenal’s metronomic Spaniard.  He has one of the highest successful passing percentages in Ligue 1 at 88.2% while also attempting more passes than anyone else in the league (66.8).  Arteta’s pass success rate stands at a ridiculous 92.4% while attempting 84.6 passes a game.  Defensively, though, Gonalons appears to be slightly better, averaging 3.9 tackles a game and 3.1 interceptions while committing only 2.3 fouls a game.  Arteta is averaging 3.2 tackles and 2.7 interceptions, and he also commits more fouls at 2.7 a game.  Additionally, Gonalons is only 24 and already captains Lyon.  Transfermarkt.co.uk values him at around £9 million pounds, but he could be even cheaper as his contract runs out in 2014 meaning that this could be Lyon’s last chance to get something for him should he decide he wants to leave.

It’s been clear for years that Arsenal needs a solid center back who is capable of organizing the defence.  It seemed like Thomas Vermaelen was going to be the answer, but he has yet to rediscover his form from before his long-term injury.  Koscielny was brilliant last season and has rediscovered that form over the last two games, but he isn’t the type to lead the line; he needs a vocal and commanding center back next to him.  Mertesacker has been quietly efficient this season, but he is still too slow and lumbering to be a truly top defender.  His positioning is better than perhaps anyone else’s and I hope he sticks around for years to come (and later becomes a defensive coach for Arsenal), but he will always be too slow to be effective against players such as Messi, Suarez, Aguero, Tevez, Rooney, etc.

Andrea Ranocchia of Inter Milan would be a perfect fit.  At 25, he is young enough that he could still improve but old enough that he is experienced enough to be a leader in a defense that desperately needs one.  He is first among central defenders in tackles-per-game at 4.2 while also committing only 1.2 fouls per game.  He is 10th in interceptions at 3 per game and 20th in clearances at 8 but there is no one who has more clearances while also winning more than 2 tackles more game.  Essentially, he is a well-rounded central defender who wins the ball back better than anyone else without giving up dangerous free kicks and with a successful passing percentage of 86.4%, he does a good job of making sure his team keeps the ball when he wins it back (that percentage includes clearances which usually result in turnovers).  Transfermarkt.co.uk values him at £16 million, but his contract runs out in 2015 meaning Inter will have to sell soon if he doesn’t want to sign an extension.  And given that Inter Milan have not been as dominant this season as recent seasons, he could want to leave in the hope of gaining more silverware.

Finally, I think Arsenal need a goalkeeper to compete with Szczesny.  I still have very high hopes for Szczesny, but his form has clearly dropped off this season.  He has been at his best when he has to prove himself and his decline in form has coincided with it becoming clear that Fabianski and Mannone don’t have a future at the club.  Someone like Rene Adler would be ideal.  He is 28 years old and plays for Hamburg in the Bundesliga.  He was Germany’s number 1 for more than 2 years until Manuel Neuer burst onto the scene and established himself as one of the world’s best goalkeepers.  At 6’5, he is easily tall enough to command his area well and his distribution is excellent (one of Szczesny’s weakest traits).  It’s unlikely that he would cost much more than £7 million, and Hamburg probably aren’t going to finish in the Europa League spots in the Bundesliga so he might enjoy a chance to play in Europe (assuming Arsenal can wrangle a top 4 finish).

Now, do I expect any of these transfers to actually happen?  Not really, although Maxime Gonalons seems the most likely.  If I had to list the order of importance, it would go Cavani, Ranocchia, Gonalons, Adler.  I would love to see Wenger spend the required money to get Cavani, but it doesn’t seem particularly likely.  It would help if Arsenal could finally unload their deadwood (Arshavin, Bendtner, Denilson, Squillaci, and Chamakh) and open up some more squad spots and salary that could be used to entice the more expensive pair of Cavani and Ranocchia.  I do think that these player could turn Arsenal into a team capable of competing for the title next year.  A starting 11 that looks something like this would be very dangerous:

Adler

Sagna  Ranocchia  Koscielny  Gibbs

Arteta  Gonalons

Walcott  Wilshere  Cazorla

Cavani

More importantly, though, it would give Arsenal serious depth and competition at every position.  That squad leaves out Szczesny, Jenkinson, Mertesacker, Vermaelen, Monreal, Ramsey, Coquelin, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Gervinho, Podolski, and Giroud.  All of those players wants to start and that would only increase the performance of every single player.  It also adds some experience to the side that will help players like Jenkinson, Ramsey, Coquelin, and Oxlade-Chamberlain to develop.

Alas, this is all speculation that probably won’t turn into anything.  But wouldn’t it be fun?

It has been 18 years since Sp*rs finished above Arsenal.  17.  To put it another way, I was 5 and a half months old when that happened.  That is an unprecedented level of dominance.  This is the biggest rivalry in English football.  This is bigger than Manchester United vs. Manchester City.  This is bigger than Liverpool vs. Everton.  Tomorrow could change everything.  It could put Tottenham 7 points ahead of the Gunners with 10 games left in the season.  Or, it could end Tottenham’s momentum and leave Arsenal a single point back with what looks like an easier schedule.  The rest of the Gunner’s season hinges on tomorrow’s game.  Win and pull back up the table to 3^rd and all is forgiven.  Lose and finish outside of the top 4 for the first time in more than 15 years and it would force some sort of overhaul in the summer.

Unfortunately for the Gunners, Sagna is out injured meaning that Jenkinson will be tasked with containing perhaps the most dangerous player in the Premier League right now.  Jenkinson has had some brilliant performances and some howlers.  But I’m not too worried. As a life-long Arsenal fan, Jenkinson knows what this game means.  He knows how important it is and he will try harder than anyone on the field.  I mean, look at his room.  He is a true Arsenal fan.  Other than that, Wenger has a full team to select from.  It will be interesting to see what he does with Cazorla.  He could put him on the left to help the Gunners retain the ball and have some more creativity down one of the wings, or he could stick him behind Giroud.  The other question is if Cazorla does start out wide, will Diaby or Ramsey start next to Arteta?  Personally, I hope the line-up looks like this:

Szczesny

Jenkinson  Mertesacker  Vermaelen  Monreal

Arteta  Ramsey

Walcott  Wilshere  Cazorla

Giroud

As for Tottenham’s line-up, well, it matters very little.  I tend to disagree with the characterization of any team being a one-man team, but as Tim points out on 7amkickoff, Tottenham are the definition of a one-man team.  They win by getting the ball to Defoe or Bale in isolated situations and hoping they can produce something from nothing.  This means that Arsenal don’t have to try to stop Bale.  They need to stop him getting on the ball in dangerous situations.  If he drops deep to receive the ball, that’s fine.  His danger comes from his shooting ability and his direct style of play.  But as soon as he is within 40 yards of the goal, Ramsey should be on him.  Wenger has said he won’t change anything to protect against Bale, but I’d like to see Ramsey man-mark him the same way other teams have man-marked Cazorla.  Bale needs space to operate and space to run into.  Despite his ridiculous goal-scoring record, they all come from the same situations: He either knocks the ball into space and out-paces his marker or he is given space to shoot from distance.  Both of those can be prevented easily enough.  Anyways, I imagine Sp*rs will line-up something like this:

Lloris

Walker  Caulker Vertonghen  Assou-Ekotto

Parker  Dembele

Lennon Holtby  Bale

Defoe

I’m really not too worried about any of those players except for Bale.  Lennon is simply Walcott from two years ago, Holtby is an interesting but unfinished prospect, and Defoe has only scored once in his last ten games.  Parker will run around a lot and get away with horrifying tackles because he’s Parker, Dembele could be a danger if they move him forwards, but I’m not worried about his impact on the game as a defensive midfielder.

It will be up to Arsenal to control the game despite being away from home.  The Gunners need to make sure they spread the field and attack Assou-Ekotto and Walker.  Walcott should be able to dismantle Assou-Ekotto with ease and Bale doesn’t like tracking back.  Wilshere just needs to turn in his usual brilliant performance to have an impact on the game; the same is true of Arteta.  If Ramsey starts, he needs to be buzzing about the midfield making sure that Wilshere doesn’t have to worry about defense and that no Sp*rs player has time on the ball.  Or, if the midfield isn’t looking threatening, he should be prepared to always help out Jenkinson on Bale.  Monreal will need to get forward if possible to help spread the field and allow Cazorla to drift inside.  Walcott should curb his natural instinct to become a second striker and stay wide as Jenkinson won’t be able to get forward much.  I would hope Giroud can rediscover his scoring form from a month ago, or at the very least, use his strength to bully Caulker and Vertonghen.  Giroud is maybe the strongest player I’ve ever watched (with the exception of Ibrahimovic who is superhuman), but he rarely uses it to really force defenders to respect him.  It’s by far his best attribute and when he uses it, it’s a sight to behold.

In the end though, how the game is played matters little.  I don’t care if Arsenal play like Stoke tomorrow but walk away with the three points.  I’d rather that than watch them pass the ball around only to lose 3-1.  But this is a must-win game.  Not necessarily for the points—a draw would be fine.  But we need to establish who holds the power in North London.  We need to win.

We will win.

North London is red.

Come On You Gunners.

This is the first Arsenal game I have ever gone into feeling legitimately scared.  Bayern is an absurdly good team.  They are 18 points ahead in the Bundesliga.  They have won 18 of their 22 league games.  They have given up just 7 goals in those 22 games.  They outmatch Arsenal in every position you can think of.  They have given up 1 goal in 11 away games.  It has been 400 minutes since they allowed a SHOT ON TARGET.  This is terrifying.  I have no idea how they can be beaten.

I am scared.  Not because I’m afraid Arsenal will lose.  Arsenal loses all the time.  I’m scared that Bayern Munich will simply outclass Arsenal from start to finish, and it won’t even be a contest.  I’m scared that this will be the watershed moment that shows that this Arsenal side just isn’t good enough anymore.  That we can no longer compete for trophies.  That even finishing in the top 4 is a stretch.  I’m scared that this is the game that will change the direction that Arsenal is going.  That it will cause the fans to rush to Usmanov for his oil money to change things.  That Wenger will be pushed out by the fans.

(Interlude for expected line-ups).

Koscielny is facing a late fitness test, but assuming he is fit, I expect Arsenal to look like this:

Szczesny

Sagna  Mertesacker  Koscielny  Vermaelen

Arteta Wilshere

Walcott  Cazorla  Podolski

Giroud

If he isn’t fit, I imagine that Sagna would play as the other center back and Jenkinson would come in at right-back.  I expect Bayern Munich to look something like this:

Neuer

Lahm  Buyten  Dante  Alaba

Martinez  Schweinsteiger

Muller Kroos  Ribery

Mandzukic

The good news is that Bayern is hampered by injury somewhat.  Their starting center back pairing is out, something that Giroud needs to exploit.  The bad news is that Alaba is probably the only player in the world who can match Walcott for pace and Lahm is the best full back in the world.  I think it will be necessary for Arsenal to rely on width from the full backs to let Walcott and Podolski drift inside to avoid the fullbacks and create a 3-on-2 against the center backs.  However, it would require Arsenal’s midfield to dominate the game fully enough to allow the fullbacks to push up.

I find it hard to imagine a scenario in which this game is absolutely going to come down to the midfield.  Both teams love to possess the ball for long stretches, and both teams do it very well.  Martinez and Schweinsteiger are incredible holding midfielders while Kroos has an incredible positioning sense that makes up for his lack of pace.  I would consider having Arteta man-mark him to take him out of the game as he is who will provide the supply for Ribery, Muller, and Mandzukic.

As I said, I am scared.  Terrified, even.  I think it more likely than not that the tie is as good as finished after this match.

That being said, this is the beauty of the Champions League.  This is exactly what is so incredible about it.  This is hardly the first time that the Gunners have been in this position.  Finding out in a locker room (I was unable to watch the game because of work) that Arsenal had come back from 1-0 to win 2-1 against maybe the greatest team of all time was my third favorite moment as an Arsenal fan (the first being Thierry Henry’s comeback goal against Leeds and the second being when the comeback over Tottenham was finally complete last season).  There is no other sport in the world that puts the greatest teams in the world together in one competition.

So yes, I’m scared.  But more than scared, I am hopeful and excited.  I think it is likely that Arsenal will lose this game.  I think it is possible that it will be by three or more goals.

But it is possible that this will be a game that I remember for the rest of my life.  It is possible that we will see the brilliance that we know this team is capable of.  It is possible that this will be the catalyst that helps the Gunners win the Champions League and make a push to second or third in the League.  Unlikely.  But possible.

It may be irrational to hope for this.  But for me, this is what football is all about.  This is what supporting Arsenal is all about.  I haven’t been this excited for a game for a long, long time.  I have never been this scared entering a game.  This is what it means to be an Arsenal fan.  I would hope that most other fans feel the same way and that today—regardless of the result—is a day that we come together to support the team.  Today is not the time for protesting or booing.  Today is the day for unconditional support of the team we all love.

This is what football is about.  I am scared.  I am hopeful.  I am excited.  Above all, I am an Arsenal fan.

Come On You Gunners.

I was going to write a post regarding why Theo Walcott has been largely underappreciated this season (despite the calls to meet his wage demands before he signed the contract) by comparing him to Bale.  Bale has managed to generate comparisons to Messi and Ronaldo, and the media seems to think he is the best player in the premier league.  Then Mr. Tim Stillman from 7amkickoff did his usual insightful thing and wrote this column, so you should just go read that.  Onto the Blackburn preview.

Unfortunately for the Gunners, Paul Robinson no longer starts for Blackburn.  Not that he’s a bad keeper; he played 41 times for England, but he has also given up 53 goals against Arsenal.  It’s hard to know much about Blackburn given that they are a very different side from the one that got relegated last year.  That being said, they are in 8^th in the Championship and they seem to have put their off-the-field struggles behind them.

Arsenal go into this game with a few knocks and some decisions to make about who to rest.  The FA Cup is the best chance the Gunners are going to have for silverware this season, so I don’t think that we will see a drastically weakened side.  That being said, I think there is enough depth that key players can be rested without damaging the possibility of a win against Blackburn too much.  I expect to see a line-up something like this:

Szczesny

Sagna  Mertesacker  Miquel  Monreal

Ramsey  Diaby

Chamberlain  Rosicky  Gervinho

Giroud

This would give everyone who will start against Bayern a rest except Giroud, Sagna, Mertesacker, and Szczesny.  Although is likely to be fit for the game, it seems highly unlikely that Wenger would risk playing him, especially Monreal is cup tied, meaning Vermaelen will have to play left-back.  I think it’s possible that the young right back Hector Bellerin could feature, either as a starter or as a sub to give Sagna some rest.  Other than that, it’s a line-up that should be able to do the job and also features players who could use the playing time.

I know nothing about the Blackburn players, but the Guardian tells me that they’ll line-up like this:

Kean

Orr       Dann        Givet      Olsson

Kazim-Richards  Murphy  Lowe  Olsson

Goodwillie   Rhodes

Rhodes is the danger man for Blackburn having scored 9 goals in his last 10 appearances.  Only Orr, Dann, Givet, and the two Olsson’s played in the Premier League.  That is their entire defense, and it shows in the statistics, especially away from home where they’re more likely to be cautious.  Only five teams in the Championship have given up fewer away goals than Blackburn and although they’ve only won 3 of their fifteen away matches, they’ve also drawn 9 while losing three.  Despite the high scoring nature of these games in the last few years, I think that this could be a tight affair with Blackburn sitting deep, putting men behind the ball, and trying to reduce the amount of space for the Arsenal midfielders in and around the box.

That being said, that’s very similar to what Stoke and Sunderland did, and the Gunners pulled it out in both cases.  Here’s to another victory and moving one step closer to Wembley. COYG.

Club football returns tomorrow as Arsenal travel to the Stadium of Light to take on a Sunderland team that just lost to Reading.  That being said, Arsenal have always had trouble against Sunderland (winning only two of their last six against them).  The Stadium of Light has seen the fewest goals scored of any stadium so far this season, so a high scoring affair is unlikely.  It’s a winnable game for the Gunners, but they will need a good performance from their attacking players—especially Cazorla, who has dropped off in recent weeks—if they are to come away with the three points.

Thomas Vermaelen is out with an ankle injury, so presumably Arteta will captain the side again.  Koscielny is going to face a late fitness test to see if he has recovered from his calf strain quickly enough to start the match.  If he is still injured, it presents a dilemma to Wenger.  With Djourou in Germany, the only other fit center backs at the club are Mertesacker (who will obviously start), Miquel, and Squillaci.  The less said about Squillaci, the better, but Miquel may still be too young and prone to lapses in concentration to start a premier league game.  He has impressed in the few opportunities he’s been given in the first team, but it may still be too early to see him feature.  It seems more likely that Wenger will move Sagna to the center and give Jenkinson the start at right back.  Wenger also said that Wilshere wouldn’t play the whole game, so it remains to be seen whether or not he will start him or leave him on the bench in the hopes that he doesn’t have to be used.

I expect the team to look something like this:

Szczesny

Jenkinson  Sagna  Mertesacker  Monreal

Arteta  Wilshere

Walcott  Cazorla  Podolski

Giroud

Meanwhile, Sunderland will probably stick with the starting 11 they’ve used in almost every game:

Mignolet

Gardner  O’Shea  Cuellar  Colback

Larsson  N’Diaye  Vaughn  Johnson

Sessegnon

Fletcher

Martin O’Neill likes his team to play solid defense, something that is illustrated with his defensive line-up and the number of goals that have been scored at the Stadium of Light.  They have a very good striker in Steven Fletcher who has scored 10 goals this season and rarely misses when given an opportunity.  How threatening they are will hinge upon the play of Sessegnon, Johnson, and Larsson.  Sessegnon can be brilliant on his day, or he can be nonexistent (like lots of creative players, to be fair).  Sunderlands likes to get the ball wide to their wingers, Johnson and Larsson.  Johnson is left-footed and if he switches to play out on the right, he will take every opportunity available to cut inside and shoot.  It will be up to Monreal and Jenkinson/Sagna to be aware of when the wingers switch sides and adjust their tactics accordingly.

On offense, Arsenal will need a big game from their creative and driving midfielders (presumably Cazorla and Wilshere).  Cazorla started off the season brilliantly, but as it has worn on, he has become a little less influential.  Hopefully, after being rested against Stoke, he can turn it around and be the midfield maestro he was for the first fifteen games.  There’s not a whole lot to say about Wilshere—if he keeps playing the way he has been (including his man-of-the-match performance against Brazil)—he could very well be the difference between winning and losing for the Gunners.

Walcott, Giroud, and Podolski have slowly been developing a partnership, and hopefully that will continue.  This is the first game that Monreal and Podolski will have played together and the international break will have prevented them from training together, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.  I imagine that Monreal will hang back more in the first half until he can get a sense of when he should push forwards.  It’s a partnership that will take a few weeks to develop, and it’s unlikely that it will reach the same level that the Gibbs/Podolski partnership has.

All in all, a winnable game, but one that is far from a formality.  A good performance from the attacking four should see us through, but if Sunderland presses the ball in their own half, it could prove difficult.

COYG.

The only goal of the game came from Jack Wilshere and it was a microcosm of the way the game had gone.  After a free kick from Arsenal, Swansea attempted to play the ball out from the back.  Wilshere pressed hard and gave up a throw to Swansea in the 85^th minute.  They were immediately put under pressure by Arsenal and were forced to smash the ball clear.  Gibbs beat a Swansea player to the ball, laid it off to Cazorla who took a few touches and passed it to Giroud.  Giroud just let the ball bounce off his foot into the path of Wilshere who saw he was open following his good run from midfield and powered the ball past the (excellent) Swansea keeper.

The final score is misleading; I haven’t seen Arsenal dominate a game so intensely all season.  That’s not to say that I felt confident about the result.  I was convinced that it was going to be one of those games where Arsenal dominates, could have/should have scored ten goals and then loses in extra time or on penalties.  I haven’t been this optimistic after an Arsenal match in a long, long time.

Obviously, one game doesn’t give us a large enough sample size to make long-term conclusions.  But I think there are a few things to take from this game, all of them positive.  The first thing is Jack Wilshere.  What. A. Player.  That seemed like something of a coming of age performance from a player who is already ridiculously impressive.  Not so much for his ball-playing skills (although those were on clear display) but because of what he did for the team.  This was the first time he had started in the creative midfield role, and he excelled.  He was nothing short of brilliant.  But not only did he run the game, he was Arsenal’s leader on the field.  Vermaelen may be captain, but Wilshere picked the game up by the scruff of its neck and took it to Swansea.  Only a few players in Arsenal’s recent history have been capable of truly turning a game around on their own.  Thierry Henry was one.  Dennis Bergkamp another.  Fabregas did it for fun, sometimes from the substitutes bench.  And this was the first time Wilshere successfully lead Arsenal to victory.  Sure, he’s had brilliant performances, and he’s had games where he is clearly trying to pull the team towards the win, but this was all of that and more.  He led by example, he pressed, he yelled at teammates, and he got the decisive goal.  I have never seen a player I enjoy watching more.

The second thing that struck me from this game was the formation and player choice from Monsieur Wenger.  It has been traditional from most teams that want to dominate the ball to play with three central midfielders.  Wenger played four, and it worked magnificently.  They lined up in their usual 4-3-3/4-2-3-1, but Cazorla out on the left created an interesting dynamic.  This was the most fluid formation I have seen in a long, long time from the Gunners.  With Cazorla playing out on the left, he was given more freedom than when he played in the center, and he used it to great effect.  He is clearly best when given license to roam, and he is able to do that most effectively from the left.  Walcott, too, benefitted from this system by being able to find a good balance between winger and striker.  This is not an easy formation to play in—it requires a huge amount of communication and understanding from the players, and it could go horribly wrong, but it seems to suit the players that Arsenal has extraordinarily well.  Assuming everyone is fit, we would see a line-up like this:

Szczesny

Sagna  Mertesacker/Koscielny  Vermaelen  Gibbs

Arteta  Diaby

Walcott/Cazorla/Chamberlain  Wilshere  Podolski/Cazorla/Chamberlain

Giroud

This seems like it fits everyone perfectly.  Arteta and Diaby were brilliant together in the opening four or five games of the season.  Wilshere is clearly at his best when he is able to push forwards and worry less about defense.  With Cazorla out on the wings, it allows him to rotate to essentially anywhere on the pitch (as long as someone covers for him), and he is at his best when he is allowed to roam.  Walcott and Podolski are players who are very similar when they play on the wings.  They both can play as a winger and cross the ball fairly well, but they also both like to move inside (something that is very good with a classic center forward such as Giroud).  As long as Gibbs and Sagna have someone playing in front of them, they can be devastating going forwards and give support along the wings.  As I said, this formation requires a huge amount of communication and understanding.  Every player would have to be prepared to cover for a teammate because of the freedom that each player has (Cazorla would be moving anywhere and everywhere, Wilshere and Diaby can play in any of the midfield roles or out on the wing, Walcott and Podolski would move central at times).  In the second half of the Swansea game, that is exactly what happened.  Walcott would move central and Wilshere or Cazorla would move right to give Sagna support.  Cazorla would drop deep to pick up the ball and Wilshere would rotate left with Diaby coming forward.  Diaby would break from deep in midfield and Wilshere would drop back some.  Giroud would come to midfield to win a header and Walcott would go central, Giroud would go left while Cazorla went into Wilshere’s role who would slide right to cover for Walcott.  It gave the Gunners variation in every spot on the pitch while getting the best from each player.

As I said earlier, this was one game.  It was a brilliant, enthralling game that only Arsenal and Barcelona could produce, but it was one game.  If Wenger decides to switch to this system, there will be some hiccups along the way.  But it was a very, very promising game.  We shall see if he sticks with it against Chelsea on Sunday and if he does, what the result is.  ‘Til next time.

COYG.

Arsenal play Swansea today at the Emirates after drawing with them 2-2 at Swansea a week ago.  Arsenal have yet to win in January, and this is something of a must win game, partially because the Gunners need to rediscover their good form that saw them win four straight in the League recently and partially because a cup run could go a long way to helping restore the team’s confidence.  Additionally, the FA cup is probably the best chance for Arsenal to win a trophy this season, especially as the winner of this game gets to play Brighton in the next round.

I imagine we’ll see a similar game to last time—each team will control the ball for large periods, and it will come down to who can do the most with their spells of possession.  I thought we did enough in the second half last week to warrant a victory, but the usual defensive mistakes undid the team.  The team selection should be pretty straight forward as there are a couple injuries that will force Wenger’s hand (mainly Arteta’s calf strain and Koscielny’s suspension).  I would expect the Gunners to line up like this:

Szczesny

Sagna  Mertesacker  Vermaelen  Gibbs

Ramsey  Wilshere

Walcott  Cazorla  Podolski

Giroud

Given Walcott’s recent poor performances at center forward, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wenger give Giroud the start through the center.  Giroud had more touches than Walcott did against Manchester City and had three shots to Walcott’s two despite playing only half an hour.  For me, that sums up why Walcott shouldn’t be starting at center forward just yet.  He has the finishing ability now (it would appear) and his movement off the ball has been acceptable, if not stellar, but he has yet to do anything except score.  It sounds nitpicky to say that, but the fact is that when playing as the lone striker in a 4-2-3-1, it is necessary that he holds up the ball and brings other players into the game.  Part of the problem in the first half was that there was no out ball for the Gunners.  They were getting pinned back very easily by Manchester City, and it was compounded by the fact that whenever the Gunners did win the ball, they had no one upfield to pass to.  So until Walcott can work on that side of the game, I think he is best out on the wing.

The other decision that Wenger has to make is whether to start Ramsey or Diaby in place of Arteta.  Personally, I would start Ramsey.  I think he has been one of the most underrated players this season considering that he is almost always being asked to play out of position on the wing.  He is one of those players who you know will give his all every minute of every game, and that is what Arsenal needs right now.  Diaby also seemed noticeably off the pace against Manchester City, and as soon as Ramsey came on, the midfield started to hold onto the ball more.  Ramsey gets a lot of stick, and he has his bad moments, but he is one of the few players I have ever watched who will always give his best, no matter what situation he is put in or what position he is playing and he deserves a lot of credit for that.  That being said, I think he has been very, very good this season and I would like to see him get his chance in his preferred position in the center now that Arteta is injured.  We all know he could be brilliant if he just fixed a few things in his game, and a run of games in his favored position could be what he needs to get going.

Other than that, the team pretty much picks itself.  We could see Chamberlain play out wide instead of Walcott, or we could wee Walcott play through the center.  It will presumably be Diaby or Ramsey in place of Arteta, although Coquelin can also play that position.  The rest of the team will presumably stay the same as the last few games because of the injury to Rosicky and Koscielny’s suspension.

Swansea will probably stick to the same team as last time with the exception of Michu who will probably start.  I imagine they will line-up something like this:

Vorm

Rangel  Chico  Williams  Davies

Britton  Sung-Yeung

Hernandez  Guzman  Routledge

Michu

We know how they’ll play.  They’ll hold onto the ball well and they’ll press high up the pitch when they don’t have it.  Michu is the obvious danger man having scored three goals in his two games against Arsenal.  If they play with Danny Graham up front and Michu just behind him, I would hope that Wenger would tell Ramsey to man-mark him as teams have done to Cazorla in the past.  It’s drastic, but given that he is their only player with more than 5 goals, it could swing the game in Arsenal’s favor.

Other than that, it’s going to be all about execution. If the Gunners play like they did in the second half of the first game, it should be an easy victory.  That being said, if Swansea gets an early goal, they could sit back and try to get another one on the counterattack (something they are very, very good at).  It will be up to Arsenal to take the game to Swansea given that Arsenal is the home team.  This is a winnable game, but Swansea has given us trouble in the past, scoring 7 goals in three games against us, good enough for two wins and a draw.

COYG.